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Growing concerns are present about the possibility of warfare involving Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile discourse has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has triggered a heated war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his government's access to the sea was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea dismissed.

Ties between the neighboring nations have often been tense. After a decades-long battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a extensive sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, making it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a territorial conflict erupted in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Latest Comments from Ethiopia's Officials

Abiy and military leader the army commander have openly claimed control of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and suggested the intention to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Claims

In the face of continuous threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for maritime entry labeling it "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a policy of reclaiming previous domains.

Government spokespeople warned on 16 September that efforts to validate "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

Currently, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has shown training completions of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The head of personnel division of the armed forces, the officer, stated recently in an interview that the army was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Past Roots of the Conflict

For over fifty years from 1890, the territory was administered by colonial powers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the UK forces before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 the ruler ended this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long civil war occurred, concluding with the government's loss in 1991. Autonomy was then endorsed by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their common border, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries stayed at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders agreed to a declaration that the war was concluded – a decision that won Abiy the international recognition.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's recent civil war in Tigray.

However ties have later worsened anew.