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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still