A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
