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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd